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Bupolsa vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bupolsa
Bupolsa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
2/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa45%
×Draw27%
Real Burgos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bupolsa
1.35
Real Burgos
1.00

Bupolsa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bupolsa
0.80
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Bupolsa
1.00
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw
72%
Bupolsa or Real Burgos
73%
Draw or Real Burgos
55%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+
21%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals
74%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
39%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
15%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
63%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
26%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)
62%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bupolsa scores more
45%
level
27%
Real Burgos scores more
28%

Bupolsa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bupolsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bupolsa 1–1 Real Burgos

Bupolsa and Real Burgos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Nuevo Campo San Amaro in Burgos.