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Bupolsa vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bupolsa
Bupolsa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Numancia II
Numancia II
12/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa41%
×Draw29%
Numancia II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bupolsa
1.19
Numancia II
0.97

Bupolsa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bupolsa
0.80
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Bupolsa
1.00
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw
70%
Bupolsa or Numancia II
71%
Draw or Numancia II
59%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+
18%
Numancia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals
70%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
33%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
12%
Numancia II 1+ goals
62%
Numancia II 2+ goals
25%
Numancia II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)
58%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bupolsa scores more
41%
level
29%
Numancia II scores more
30%

Bupolsa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bupolsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Bupolsa 1–2 Numancia II

Numancia II beat Bupolsa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Nuevo Campo San Amaro in Burgos.