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Bupolsa vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bupolsa
Bupolsa
CANC
22:00
Bembibre
Bembibre
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 42Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa41%
×Draw30%
Bembibre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bupolsa
1.16
Bembibre
0.91

Bupolsa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bupolsa
0.80
Bembibre
0.82

allows per match

Bupolsa
1.00
Bembibre
1.51

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par
Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Bembibre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw
71%
Bupolsa or Bembibre
70%
Draw or Bembibre
59%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+
18%
Bembibre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals
69%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
32%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
11%
Bembibre 1+ goals
60%
Bembibre 2+ goals
23%
Bembibre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)
59%
Bembibre (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bupolsa scores more
41%
level
30%
Bembibre scores more
29%

Bupolsa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bupolsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bupolsa face Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 returns with Bupolsa hosting Bembibre. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bupolsa host Bembibre at Nuevo Campo San Amaro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.