Bupolsa 1–0 Almazán: Result & Stats

Bupolsa

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almazán

2/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa37%

×Draw30%

Almazán32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BupolsaExpected goals in this matchAlmazán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.98

Bupolsa

1.07

Almazán

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

0.80

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Bupolsa

0.80

Almazán

0.97

allows per match

Bupolsa

1.00

Almazán

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par

Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Almazán →

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw

68%

Bupolsa or Almazán

70%

Draw or Almazán

63%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+

15%

Almazán wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals

66%

Bupolsa 2+ goals

29%

Bupolsa 3+ goals

Almazán 1+ goals

62%

Almazán 2+ goals

26%

Almazán 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)

53%

Almazán (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.07

Almazán attack 0.97 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bupolsa scores more

37%

level

30%

Almazán scores more

32%

Bupolsa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bupolsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff