Bunyodkor 1–0 Qizilqum: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qizilqum

K. Giyosov 90+6' (pen)

11/4/2021

Super League · Round 24Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bunyodkor48%

×Draw26%

Qizilqum26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchQizilqum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Bunyodkor

1.50

Qizilqum

1.02

Bunyodkor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 97 away

1.45

creates per match

0.71

1.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Qizilqum

0.71

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Qizilqum

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Qizilqum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

74%

Bunyodkor or Qizilqum

74%

Draw or Qizilqum

52%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

24%

Qizilqum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

78%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

44%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

19%

Qizilqum 1+ goals

64%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

27%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

65%

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

48%

level

26%

Qizilqum scores more

26%

Bunyodkor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

E. Grigalashvili

26'

I. Kenjabaev

43'

L. Turaev

46'

J. Azimov← F. Kambarov

55'

N. Tukhtasinov

61'

O. Abdurakhmanov

76'

M. Mirakhmadov← O. Abdurakhmanov

78'

D. Khasanov← M. Vatsadze

79'

A. Abdullayev

84'

M. Kakhramonov

90'

M. Olimjonov← I. Gbadamosi

90+6'

K. GiyosovPenalty

Bunyodkor

Qizilqum

Manager: S. Maqsudov

76'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼O. Abdurakhmanov

90'▲M. Olimjonov←▼I. Gbadamosi

Bunyodkor substitutes

MirakhmadovOlimjonovErgashevMirakhmatovAzizxo'jayevYuldashevRahmonaliyevSultonovSafaev

Manager: K. Aktamov

46'▲J. Azimov←▼F. Kambarov

78'▲D. Khasanov←▼M. Vatsadze

Qizilqum substitutes

AzimovKhasanovMakosinUmarjonovUsmanovSadullaevAbdualimovQosimovAleksin

Super League: Bunyodkor 1–0 Qizilqum

Bunyodkor beat Qizilqum 1-0 in Super League on November 4, 2021.

Goals: K. Giyosov (90+6' pen).

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.

Bunyodkor vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Bunyodkor 1–0 Qizilqum