Bunyodkor 3–2 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pakhtakor

M. Mirakhmadov 81'

N. Tukhtasinov 55', 5'

A. Abdullayev 80' (OG)

J. Masharipov 26'

11/5/2020

Super League · Round 18Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bunyodkor28%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.59

Bunyodkor

1.17

Pakhtakor

1.59

Pakhtakor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

1.45

creates per match

1.85

1.33

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

53%

Bunyodkor or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

72%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

11%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

69%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

33%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

11%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

80%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

47%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

37%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

28%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

47%

Pakhtakor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

20'

21'

26'

38'

K. Alijonov

54'

D. Axmadaliev← K. Giyosov

55'

N. Tukhtasinov

60'

S. Nurmuradov← S. Erkinov

61'

Abror Ismailov← S. Sobirkhujaev

61'

E. Derdiyok← I. Sergeev

73'

J. Sidikov← D. Khamdamov

78'

M. Mirakhmadov← R. Yuldashev

78'

S. Izzatov← U. Abdullayev

80'

A. AbdullayevOwn goal

81'

M. Mirakhmadov

82'

K. Alijonov

82'

K. Alijonov

83'

J. Masharipov

84'

85'

90+2'

V. Kozak← O. Khamrobekov

Bunyodkor

Pakhtakor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

🥅

▼

▼

Manager: V. Abramov

54'▲D. Axmadaliev←▼K. Giyosov

60'▲S. Nurmuradov←▼S. Erkinov

78'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼R. Yuldashev

78'▲S. Izzatov←▼U. Abdullayev

Bunyodkor substitutes

AxmadalievNurmuradovMirakhmadovIzzatovIkramovIbragimovKakhramonovKarimov

Manager: S. Arveladze

61'▲Abror Ismailov←▼S. Sobirkhujaev

61'▲E. Derdiyok←▼I. Sergeev

73'▲J. Sidikov←▼D. Khamdamov

90+2'▲V. Kozak←▼O. Khamrobekov

Pakhtakor substitutes

IsmailovDerdiyokSidikovKozakKomilovErkinovAbdullaevAzamovKuvvatov

Match Recap: Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor

Bunyodkor beat Pakhtakor 3-2 in Super League on November 5, 2020.

Goals: N. Tukhtasinov (5', 55'), J. Masharipov (26'), A. Abdullayev (80' o.g.), M. Mirakhmadov (81').

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.

Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor