Bunyodkor 3–2 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv

M. Mirakhmadov 90+10' (pen)

U. Ismonaliyev 73'

M. Makhamadjonov 59' (pen)

D. Komilov 90'

S. Tursunov 33'

5/21/2024

Super League · Round 8Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bunyodkor39%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Bunyodkor

1.35

Lokomotiv

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 74 away

1.45

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

66%

Bunyodkor or Lokomotiv

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv

61%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

18%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

74%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

39%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

71%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

53%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

39%

level

26%

Lokomotiv scores more

34%

Bunyodkor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

S. Tursunov

35'

M. Mirakhmadov← F. Otkurov

46'

M. Olimjonov← T. Jović

57'

S. Komilov

59'

M. MakhamadjonovPenalty

69'

S. Izzatov

72'

S. Abdunabiyev← M. Hasanov

73'

U. Ismonaliyev

79'

L. Mirzayev← S. Komilov

85'

A. Saidov← F. Čirjak

85'

S. Zeljković← R. Yuldashev

88'

A. Turdialiev← I. Bulatović

88'

I. Abdullaev← D. Krajišnik

90+2'

S. AbdunabievGoal Disallowed

90+7'

S. Sultanov

90'

N. Ahmadjonov← M. Makhamadjonov

90'

D. Komilov

90+10'

M. MirakhmadovPenalty

Bunyodkor

Lokomotiv

⚽

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⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

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Manager: S. Arslanov

35'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼F. Otkurov

46'▲M. Olimjonov←▼T. Jović

85'▲A. Saidov←▼F. Čirjak

85'▲S. Zeljković←▼R. Yuldashev

90'▲N. Ahmadjonov←▼M. Makhamadjonov

Bunyodkor substitutes

MirakhmadovOlimjonovSaidovZeljkovićAhmadjonovTupliyevKarimovKarimovAbdukholikov

Manager: Y. Nazarov

72'▲S. Abdunabiyev←▼M. Hasanov

79'▲L. Mirzayev←▼S. Komilov

88'▲A. Turdialiev←▼I. Bulatović

88'▲I. Abdullaev←▼D. Krajišnik

Lokomotiv substitutes

AbdunabiyevMirzayevTurdialievAbdullaevAbdujalilovKhoshimboyevSindarov