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Bunyodkor vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
Preview
15:00
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
8/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Milliy Stadium
Big match
47%
Bunyodkor
model favours
47%26%27%

Kokand-1912 win just 9% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bunyodkor47%
×Draw26%
Kokand-191227%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bunyodkor
1.52
Kokand-1912
1.10

Bunyodkor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bunyodkor
1.45
Kokand-1912
0.88

allows per match

Bunyodkor
1.33
Kokand-1912
1.58

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw
73%
Bunyodkor or Kokand-1912
74%
Draw or Kokand-1912
53%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+
24%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals
78%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
45%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
20%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
67%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
30%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
63%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bunyodkor scores more
47%
level
26%
Kokand-1912 scores more
27%

Bunyodkor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bunyodkor sit 5, Kokand-1912 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bunyodkor
LLLWL
Kokand-1912
LLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bunyodkor host Kokand-1912

August 20, 2026: Bunyodkor take on Kokand-1912 in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bunyodkor host Kokand-1912 at Milliy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.