Bunyodkor 1–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

D. Ergashev 90+5'

I. Josović 90' (pen)

6/21/2022

Super League · Round 12Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Bunyodkor47%

×Draw26%

Kokand-191227%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Bunyodkor

1.52

Kokand-1912

1.10

Bunyodkor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 72 away

1.45

creates per match

0.88

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Kokand-1912

0.88

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Kokand-1912

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

73%

Bunyodkor or Kokand-1912

74%

Draw or Kokand-1912

53%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

24%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

78%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

45%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

20%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

67%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

30%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

63%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

47%

level

26%

Kokand-1912 scores more

27%

Bunyodkor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. Azimov

56'

S. Izzatov← O. Abdurakhmanov

61'

D. Khasanov← B. Toshmirzaev

68'

J. Khakimov← U. Sultonov

76'

D. Ergashev

79'

H. Ergashboyev← F. Narh

79'

B. Tupliyev← U. Rahmonaliyev

83'

A. Hojimirzaev← M. Meliev

90+3'

I. Vahobov← S. Azimov

90'

I. JosovićPenalty

90+5'

D. Ergashev

Bunyodkor

Kokand-1912

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Maqsudov

56'▲S. Izzatov←▼O. Abdurakhmanov

68'▲J. Khakimov←▼U. Sultonov

79'▲H. Ergashboyev←▼F. Narh

79'▲B. Tupliyev←▼U. Rahmonaliyev

Bunyodkor substitutes

IzzatovKhakimovErgashboyevTupliyevJuraevAzizxo'jayevUmrzakovKakhramonovYuldashev

Manager: B. Ashurmatov

61'▲D. Khasanov←▼B. Toshmirzaev

83'▲A. Hojimirzaev←▼M. Meliev

90+3'▲I. Vahobov←▼S. Azimov

Kokand-1912 substitutes

KhasanovHojimirzaevVahobovJaloliddinovAbdullayevAshurmatovLukićNurmatovYetvozqo'ziyev