Bunyodkor 2–1 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Samarqand

U. Ismonaliyev 90+3'

U. Rahmonaliyev 84' (pen)

S. Rashidov 16'

3/31/2022

Super League · Round 4Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Bunyodkor45%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Samarqand31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.28

Bunyodkor

1.59

Dinamo Samarqand

1.28

Bunyodkor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 62 away

1.45

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

69%

Bunyodkor or Dinamo Samarqand

75%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

55%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

80%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

47%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

21%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

45%

level

25%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

31%

Bunyodkor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

O. Nurmatov

15'

J. Orozov

16'

S. Rashidov

36'

D. Juraev

36'

I. Tomiva

46'

O. Abdurakhmanov← D. Juraev

46'

U. Ismonaliyev← I. Gbadamosi

64'

A. Isroilov

65'

M. Muzaffarov

66'

T. Ismailov

73'

H. Ergashboyev← M. Olimjonov

73'

U. Sultonov← J. Orozov

76'

S. Rakhmatov← O. Nurmatov

82'

M. Jovanovic

84'

U. RahmonaliyevPenalty

87'

A. Glišić← S. Rashidov

87'

T. Ergashev← T. Ismoilov

88'

U. Rahmonaleiv

90+5'

J. Mannonov

90+3'

U. Ismonaliyev

Bunyodkor

Dinamo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Maqsudov

46'▲O. Abdurakhmanov←▼D. Juraev

46'▲U. Ismonaliyev←▼I. Gbadamosi

73'▲H. Ergashboyev←▼M. Olimjonov

73'▲U. Sultonov←▼J. Orozov

Bunyodkor substitutes

AbdurakhmanovIsmonaliyevErgashboyevSultonovAzizxo'jayevKakhramonovMakhamadjonovKarimovKhursandov

Manager: P. Rogan

76'▲S. Rakhmatov←▼O. Nurmatov

87'▲A. Glišić←▼S. Rashidov

87'▲T. Ergashev←▼T. Ismoilov

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

RakhmatovGlišićErgashevAkhrorovAlimovSharipovUmarovKomilovYuldashev