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Buñol vs RC Catarroja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Buñol
Buñol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RC Catarroja
RC Catarroja
12/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Campo de Fútbol Beltrán Báguena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Buñol48%
×Draw30%
RC Catarroja22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buñol
1.25
RC Catarroja
0.74

Buñol creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Buñol
1.00
RC Catarroja
0.77

allows per match

Buñol
0.71
RC Catarroja
1.50

finishing

Buñol+0.00on par
RC Catarroja+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buñol ↓

RC Catarroja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Buñol or draw
78%
Buñol or RC Catarroja
70%
Draw or RC Catarroja
52%

Winning margin

Buñol wins by 2+
22%
RC Catarroja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buñol 1+ goals
71%
Buñol 2+ goals
36%
Buñol 3+ goals
13%
RC Catarroja 1+ goals
52%
RC Catarroja 2+ goals
17%
RC Catarroja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buñol (draw refunded)
69%
RC Catarroja (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buñol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

RC Catarroja away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.50 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buñol attack 1.00 + RC Catarroja defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

RC Catarroja attack 0.77 + Buñol defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Buñol scores more
48%
level
30%
RC Catarroja scores more
22%

Buñol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Buñol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Buñol 2–0 RC Catarroja

Buñol beat RC Catarroja 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beltrán Báguena in Buñol.