Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Buñol vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Buñol
Buñol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alzira
Alzira
5/9/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Campo de Fútbol Beltrán Báguena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Buñol41%
×Draw31%
Alzira28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buñol
1.09
Alzira
0.86

Buñol creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Buñol
1.00
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Buñol
0.71
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Buñol+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buñol ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Buñol or draw
72%
Buñol or Alzira
69%
Draw or Alzira
59%

Winning margin

Buñol wins by 2+
17%
Alzira wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Buñol 1+ goals
66%
Buñol 2+ goals
30%
Buñol 3+ goals
10%
Alzira 1+ goals
58%
Alzira 2+ goals
21%
Alzira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buñol (draw refunded)
59%
Alzira (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buñol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buñol attack 1.00 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alzira attack 1.02 + Buñol defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buñol scores more
41%
level
31%
Alzira scores more
28%

Buñol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buñol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Buñol 1–0 Alzira

Buñol beat Alzira 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beltrán Báguena in Buñol.