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Bumprom vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Bumprom
Bumprom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
5/19/20241. Division1. Division · Round 7Stadyen DYuSSh-8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bumprom35%
×Draw22%
ML Vitebsk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bumprom
1.63
ML Vitebsk
1.82

ML Vitebsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bumprom
1.86
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Bumprom
1.29
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Bumprom+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bumprom ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bumprom or draw
57%
Bumprom or ML Vitebsk
78%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
65%

Winning margin

Bumprom wins by 2+
17%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bumprom 1+ goals
80%
Bumprom 2+ goals
48%
Bumprom 3+ goals
22%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
84%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
54%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bumprom (draw refunded)
45%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bumprom at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bumprom attack 1.86 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Bumprom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bumprom scores more
35%
level
22%
ML Vitebsk scores more
43%

ML Vitebsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Bumprom 0–1 ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Bumprom 1-0 in 1. Division on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen DYuSSh-8 in Gomel.