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Bumprom vs FC Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Bumprom
Bumprom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
11/18/20231. Division1. Division · Round 33Stadyen DYuSSh-8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bumprom28%
×Draw23%
FC Vitebsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bumprom
1.33
FC Vitebsk
1.80

FC Vitebsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bumprom
1.86
FC Vitebsk
2.31

allows per match

Bumprom
1.29
FC Vitebsk
0.81

finishing

Bumprom+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bumprom ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bumprom or draw
52%
Bumprom or FC Vitebsk
77%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
72%

Winning margin

Bumprom wins by 2+
12%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bumprom 1+ goals
74%
Bumprom 2+ goals
38%
Bumprom 3+ goals
15%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
83%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
54%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bumprom (draw refunded)
37%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bumprom at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bumprom attack 1.86 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Vitebsk attack 2.31 + Bumprom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bumprom scores more
28%
level
23%
FC Vitebsk scores more
48%

FC Vitebsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Bumprom 0–1 FC Vitebsk

FC Vitebsk beat Bumprom 1-0 in 1. Division on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen DYuSSh-8 in Gomel.