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Bulls Academy vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
7/29/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 26Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bulls Academy27%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2150%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
1.30
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.82

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
0.73
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Bulls Academy
2.00
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
50%
Bulls Academy or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
73%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
12%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
73%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
37%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
14%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
84%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
54%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
36%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 0.73 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.30

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Bulls Academy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
27%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
50%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Bulls Academy 0–5 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 beat Bulls Academy 5-0 in New South Wales NPL on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.