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Bulls Academy vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nepean
Nepean
6/15/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bulls Academy58%
×Draw22%
Nepean20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
1.95
Nepean
1.06

Bulls Academy creates 84% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
80%
Bulls Academy or Nepean
78%
Draw or Nepean
42%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
34%
Nepean wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
86%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
58%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
31%
Nepean 1+ goals
65%
Nepean 2+ goals
29%
Nepean 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
74%
Nepean (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Nepean attack 0.67 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
58%
level
22%
Nepean scores more
20%

Bulls Academy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 2–1 Nepean

Bulls Academy beat Nepean 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.