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Bulls Academy vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Z. Helweh 58' (pen)
F. Madden 45+3'
S. Krslovic 9'
C. Mendy 29'
4/6/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 9Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy54%
×Draw21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
2.10
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.38

Bulls Academy creates 52% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 62 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
75%
Bulls Academy or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
79%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
46%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
32%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
88%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
62%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
35%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
75%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
40%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
68%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.10

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
54%
level
21%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
25%

Bulls Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
S. Krslovic
29'
C. Mendy
45+3'
F. Madden
58'
Z. HelwehPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 3–1 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Bulls Academy beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: S. Krslovic (9'), C. Mendy (29'), F. Madden (45+3'), Z. Helweh (58' pen).

The match was played at Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic in Glenwood.