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Bullense vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
El Palmar
El Palmar
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Bullense41%
×Draw26%
El Palmar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.38
El Palmar
1.19

Bullense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
68%
Bullense or El Palmar
74%
Draw or El Palmar
59%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
19%
El Palmar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
75%
Bullense 2+ goals
40%
Bullense 3+ goals
16%
El Palmar 1+ goals
70%
El Palmar 2+ goals
33%
El Palmar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
56%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bullense scores more
41%
level
26%
El Palmar scores more
32%

Bullense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bullense 2–2 El Palmar

Bullense and El Palmar drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.