Bullense 2–1 EDMF Churra: Result & Stats

Bullense

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

EDMF Churra

3/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bullense46%

×Draw25%

EDMF Churra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BullenseExpected goals in this matchEDMF Churra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.16

Bullense

1.55

EDMF Churra

1.16

Bullense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 28 away

1.18

creates per match

0.96

1.35

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Bullense

1.18

EDMF Churra

0.96

allows per match

Bullense

1.35

EDMF Churra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

EDMF Churra →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bullense or draw

71%

Bullense or EDMF Churra

75%

Draw or EDMF Churra

54%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+

23%

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals

79%

Bullense 2+ goals

46%

Bullense 3+ goals

20%

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

69%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

32%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)

62%

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bullense scores more

46%

level

25%

EDMF Churra scores more

29%

Bullense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff