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Bullense vs Cieza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cieza
Cieza
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bullense28%
×Draw27%
Cieza45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.02
Cieza
1.39

Cieza creates 36% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
Cieza
1.42

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
Cieza
0.86

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
Cieza+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Cieza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
55%
Bullense or Cieza
73%
Draw or Cieza
72%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
10%
Cieza wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
64%
Bullense 2+ goals
27%
Bullense 3+ goals
8%
Cieza 1+ goals
75%
Cieza 2+ goals
40%
Cieza 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
38%
Cieza (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Cieza away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Cieza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cieza attack 1.42 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bullense scores more
28%
level
27%
Cieza scores more
45%

Cieza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bullense 0–0 Cieza

Bullense and Cieza drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.