Bullense 1–2 Cartagena FC: Result & Stats

Bullense

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cartagena FC

12/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bullense40%

×Draw27%

Cartagena FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BullenseExpected goals in this matchCartagena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.22

Bullense

1.35

Cartagena FC

1.22

Bullense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 44 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

1.35

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Bullense

1.18

Cartagena FC

1.09

allows per match

Bullense

1.35

Cartagena FC

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par

Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Cartagena FC →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bullense or draw

66%

Bullense or Cartagena FC

73%

Draw or Cartagena FC

60%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+

18%

Cartagena FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals

74%

Bullense 2+ goals

39%

Bullense 3+ goals

15%

Cartagena FC 1+ goals

70%

Cartagena FC 2+ goals

34%

Cartagena FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)

54%

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bullense scores more

40%

level

27%

Cartagena FC scores more

34%

Bullense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff