Bullense 2–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

Bullense

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Francisco Garnés 76'

Manolo Pérez 48'

David 7'

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bullense41%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BullenseExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Bullense

1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.10

Bullense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 78 away

1.18

creates per match

0.85

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bullense

1.18

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Bullense

1.35

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bullense or draw

69%

Bullense or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

59%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+

19%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals

73%

Bullense 2+ goals

38%

Bullense 3+ goals

14%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

67%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bullense scores more

41%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

31%

Bullense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

David

32'

D. Ramírez← David

46'

Jose Sánchez← Ricardo Ortiz

46'

Francisco Matallana← Alberto Alonso

48'

Manolo Pérez

65'

Alejandro Belmonte← Carlos Álvarez

70'

Iván Pérez← Pablo Guillen

70'

Alejandro Molina← Matías

71'

Adel Chellabi← Sergio Martínez

76'

Francisco Garnés

80'

Emilio Pérez← Samuel Martínez

80'

Trucha← Javi Muñoz

82'

Aitor← Francisco Garnés

Bullense

CAP

Martínez

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

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⚽

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Manager: Alberto Castillo

46'▲Jose Sánchez←▼Ricardo Ortiz

46'▲Francisco Matallana←▼Alberto Alonso

65'▲Alejandro Belmonte←▼Carlos Álvarez

71'▲Adel Chellabi←▼Sergio Martínez

82'▲Aitor←▼Francisco Garnés

Bullense substitutes

SánchezMatallanaBelmonteChellabiAitor

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

32'▲D. Ramírez←▼David

70'▲Iván Pérez←▼Pablo Guillen

70'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Matías

80'▲Emilio Pérez←▼Samuel Martínez

80'▲Trucha←▼Javi Muñoz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

RamírezPérezMolinaPérezTrucha