Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bullense vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bullense39%
×Draw28%
Bala Azul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.25
Bala Azul
1.13

Bullense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
67%
Bullense or Bala Azul
72%
Draw or Bala Azul
61%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
17%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
71%
Bullense 2+ goals
36%
Bullense 3+ goals
13%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
68%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
31%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
54%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bullense scores more
39%
level
28%
Bala Azul scores more
33%

Bullense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bullense vs Bala Azul

Bullense beat Bala Azul 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.