Bulleen Lions 2–1 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Bulleen Lions

FT

2 – 1

Pascoe Vale

3/29/2021

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bulleen Lions43%

×Draw23%

Pascoe Vale34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulleen LionsExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.56

Bulleen Lions

1.77

Pascoe Vale

1.56

Bulleen Lions creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 31 away

1.97

creates per match

1.74

1.37

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bulleen Lions

1.97

Pascoe Vale

1.74

allows per match

Bulleen Lions

1.37

Pascoe Vale

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw

66%

Bulleen Lions or Pascoe Vale

77%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

57%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

23%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

83%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

53%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

26%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

79%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

46%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

56%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more

43%

level

23%

Pascoe Vale scores more

34%

Bulleen Lions at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff