Bulleen Lions 3–2 Moreland Zebras: Result & Stats

Bulleen Lions

FT

3 – 2

Moreland Zebras

6/20/2022

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 14David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bulleen Lions44%

×Draw24%

Moreland Zebras32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulleen LionsExpected goals in this matchMoreland Zebras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.41

Bulleen Lions

1.69

Moreland Zebras

1.41

Bulleen Lions creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 32 away

1.97

creates per match

1.44

1.37

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Bulleen Lions

1.97

Moreland Zebras

1.44

allows per match

Bulleen Lions

1.37

Moreland Zebras

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Moreland Zebras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw

68%

Bulleen Lions or Moreland Zebras

76%

Draw or Moreland Zebras

56%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

23%

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

82%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

50%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

24%

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals

76%

Moreland Zebras 2+ goals

41%

Moreland Zebras 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

58%

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more

44%

level

24%

Moreland Zebras scores more

32%

Bulleen Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff