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Bulleen Lions vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
FT
1 – 1
Kingston City
Kingston City
8/20/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 22David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bulleen Lions49%
×Draw21%
Kingston City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulleen Lions
2.06
Kingston City
1.56

Bulleen Lions creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bulleen Lions
1.97
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Bulleen Lions
1.37
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw
71%
Bulleen Lions or Kingston City
79%
Draw or Kingston City
51%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
28%
Kingston City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
87%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
61%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
34%
Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
46%
Kingston City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
63%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more
49%
level
21%
Kingston City scores more
29%

Bulleen Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulleen Lions vs Kingston City

Bulleen Lions and Kingston City drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at David Barro Stadium in Melbourne.