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Bulleen Lions vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
3/31/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 8David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bulleen Lions44%
×Draw24%
Bentleigh Greens32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulleen Lions
1.69
Bentleigh Greens
1.40

Bulleen Lions creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bulleen Lions
1.97
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

allows per match

Bulleen Lions
1.37
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw
68%
Bulleen Lions or Bentleigh Greens
76%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
56%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
23%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
82%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
50%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
24%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
75%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
41%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
58%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more
44%
level
24%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
32%

Bulleen Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bulleen Lions 1–0 Bentleigh Greens

Bulleen Lions beat Bentleigh Greens 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at David Barro Stadium in Melbourne.