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Bulle vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Bulle
Bulle
CANC
14:00
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
5/29/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stade de Bouleyres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bulle62%
×Draw19%
Terre Sainte18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulle
2.30
Terre Sainte
1.17

Bulle creates 97% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bulle
2.44
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Bulle
1.11
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Bulle+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulle ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bulle or draw
82%
Bulle or Terre Sainte
81%
Draw or Terre Sainte
38%

Winning margin

Bulle wins by 2+
40%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bulle 1+ goals
90%
Bulle 2+ goals
67%
Bulle 3+ goals
40%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
69%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
33%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bulle (draw refunded)
77%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulle at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulle attack 2.44 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.30

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Bulle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bulle scores more
62%
level
19%
Terre Sainte scores more
18%

Bulle at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bulle face Terre Sainte (1. Liga Classic - Group 1)

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 returns with Bulle hosting Terre Sainte. Match starts May 29, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bulle host Terre Sainte at Stade de Bouleyres.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.