Bulle 0–2 Lugano II: Result & Stats

Bulle

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lugano II

5/17/2025

1. Liga Promotion · Round 33Stade de Bouleyres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bulle48%

×Draw22%

Lugano II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulleExpected goals in this matchLugano II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.52

Bulle

1.97

Lugano II

1.52

Bulle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.75

creates per match

1.39

1.65

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Bulle

1.75

Lugano II

1.39

allows per match

Bulle

1.65

Lugano II

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulle+0.00on par

Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulle ↓

Lugano II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bulle or draw

70%

Bulle or Lugano II

78%

Draw or Lugano II

52%

Winning margin

Bulle wins by 2+

27%

Lugano II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bulle 1+ goals

86%

Bulle 2+ goals

58%

Bulle 3+ goals

31%

Lugano II 1+ goals

78%

Lugano II 2+ goals

45%

Lugano II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bulle (draw refunded)

62%

Lugano II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulle at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.65 · 68 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulle attack 1.75 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Bulle defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bulle scores more

48%

level

22%

Lugano II scores more

30%

Bulle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff