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Bulle vs Biel-Bienne — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Bulle
Bulle
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
9/14/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Stade de Bouleyres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bulle39%
×Draw23%
Biel-Bienne38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulle
1.69
Biel-Bienne
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bulle
1.75
Biel-Bienne
1.64

allows per match

Bulle
1.65
Biel-Bienne
1.63

finishing

Bulle+0.00on par
Biel-Bienne+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulle ↓

Biel-Bienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bulle or draw
62%
Bulle or Biel-Bienne
77%
Draw or Biel-Bienne
61%

Winning margin

Bulle wins by 2+
20%
Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bulle 1+ goals
82%
Bulle 2+ goals
50%
Bulle 3+ goals
24%
Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
81%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
49%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bulle (draw refunded)
51%
Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulle at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.65 · 68 matches

Biel-Bienne away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.63 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulle attack 1.75 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Biel-Bienne attack 1.64 + Bulle defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bulle scores more
39%
level
23%
Biel-Bienne scores more
38%

Bulle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Bulle 1–4 Biel-Bienne

Biel-Bienne beat Bulle 4-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bouleyres in Bulle.