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Bulgaria W vs Kosovo W — Friendlies Women 2020

Bulgaria W
Bulgaria W
FT
0 – 1
Kosovo W
Kosovo W
4/10/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Sportna Baza Boyana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bulgaria W38%
×Draw29%
Kosovo W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria W
1.15
Kosovo W
1.05

Bulgaria W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bulgaria W
1.00
Kosovo W
1.43

allows per match

Bulgaria W
0.67
Kosovo W
1.29

finishing

Bulgaria W+0.00on par
Kosovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria W ↓

Kosovo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bulgaria W or draw
67%
Bulgaria W or Kosovo W
71%
Draw or Kosovo W
62%

Winning margin

Bulgaria W wins by 2+
16%
Kosovo W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bulgaria W 1+ goals
68%
Bulgaria W 2+ goals
32%
Bulgaria W 3+ goals
11%
Kosovo W 1+ goals
65%
Kosovo W 2+ goals
28%
Kosovo W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria W (draw refunded)
54%
Kosovo W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Kosovo W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria W attack 1.00 + Kosovo W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kosovo W attack 1.43 + Bulgaria W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bulgaria W scores more
38%
level
29%
Kosovo W scores more
33%

Bulgaria W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulgaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulgaria W vs Kosovo W

Kosovo W beat Bulgaria W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportna Baza Boyana in Sofia.