Bulgaria 4–1 Georgia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Bulgaria

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Georgia

9/8/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bulgaria47%

×Draw26%

Georgia27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulgariaExpected goals in this matchGeorgia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Bulgaria

1.46

Georgia

1.04

Bulgaria creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bulgaria

1.38

Georgia

1.09

allows per match

Bulgaria

1.00

Georgia

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

Georgia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw

73%

Bulgaria or Georgia

74%

Draw or Georgia

53%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+

23%

Georgia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals

77%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

43%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

18%

Georgia 1+ goals

65%

Georgia 2+ goals

28%

Georgia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

63%

Georgia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Georgia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.38 + Georgia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Georgia attack 1.09 + Bulgaria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bulgaria scores more

47%

level

26%

Georgia scores more

27%

Bulgaria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bulgaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff