Bulgaria 1–1 Belarus: Result & Stats

Bulgaria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus

V. Panayotov 12'

Y. Kovalev 70'

11/18/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bulgaria38%

×Draw28%

Belarus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulgariaExpected goals in this matchBelarus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Bulgaria

1.25

Belarus

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Bulgaria

1.33

Belarus

1.17

allows per match

Bulgaria

1.17

Belarus

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

Belarus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw

66%

Bulgaria or Belarus

72%

Draw or Belarus

62%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+

17%

Belarus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals

71%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

36%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

13%

Belarus 1+ goals

69%

Belarus 2+ goals

33%

Belarus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

53%

Belarus (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.33 + Belarus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belarus attack 1.17 + Bulgaria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bulgaria scores more

38%

level

28%

Belarus scores more

34%

Bulgaria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulgaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Petkov

Bulgaria · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

Aleksandar KolevGoal cancelled

10'

Dmitriy Prishchepa

12'

V. Panayotov

31'

Fabian Nürnberger

46'

Y. Kovalev← D. Prishchepa

53'

Max Ebong

56'

Georgi Milanov

59'

E. Yablonskiy← V. Bocherov

59'

P. Zabelin← D. Polyakov

59'

D. Antilevskiy← V. Gromyko

62'

Sergei Karpovich

64'

Evgeni Yablonski

70'

Y. Kovalev↳ E. Yablonskiy

73'

P. Savitskiy← E. Shikavka

76'

A. Ahmedov← A. Kolev

76'

G. Rusev← G. Milanov

76'

F. Krastev← R. Kirilov

77'

Viktor Popov

85'

Sergei Politevich

88'

Z. Atanasov← M. Petkov

90+4'

V. Antov← V. Panayotov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BulgariaBelarus

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots5

1Corners3

17Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots5

3On Target2

5Off Target1

1Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

52%Possession48%

455Total Passes410

364Accurate Passes322

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

3Yellow Cards5

5Offsides6

Match Recap: Bulgaria vs Belarus

Bulgaria and Belarus drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2024.

Goals: V. Panayotov (12'), Y. Kovalev (70').

Bulgaria controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.

Bulgaria vs Belarus — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bulgaria vs Belarus