Bulgaria U19 0–0 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scotland U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bulgaria U1940%

×Draw30%

Scotland U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.95

Bulgaria U19

1.14

Scotland U19

0.95

Bulgaria U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

0.38

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Bulgaria U19

0.38

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Bulgaria U19

1.00

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw

70%

Bulgaria U19 or Scotland U19

70%

Draw or Scotland U19

60%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

17%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

68%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

32%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

11%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

61%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

25%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 0.38 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more

40%

level

30%

Scotland U19 scores more

30%

Bulgaria U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 0–0 Scotland U19

Bulgaria U19 and Scotland U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.

Bulgaria U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Bulgaria U19 0–0 Scotland U19