Bulgaria U19 0–0 Luxembourg U19: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luxembourg U19

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadion Albena-1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bulgaria U1938%

×Draw29%

Luxembourg U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U19Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Bulgaria U19

1.16

Luxembourg U19

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

0.38

creates per match

1.13

1.00

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Bulgaria U19

0.38

Luxembourg U19

1.13

allows per match

Bulgaria U19

1.00

Luxembourg U19

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par

Luxembourg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Luxembourg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw

67%

Bulgaria U19 or Luxembourg U19

71%

Draw or Luxembourg U19

62%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+

16%

Luxembourg U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals

69%

Bulgaria U19 2+ goals

32%

Bulgaria U19 3+ goals

11%

Luxembourg U19 1+ goals

65%

Luxembourg U19 2+ goals

29%

Luxembourg U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Luxembourg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Luxembourg U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 0.38 + Luxembourg U19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Luxembourg U19 attack 1.13 + Bulgaria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more

38%

level

29%

Luxembourg U19 scores more

33%

Bulgaria U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

K. Kolev

46'

V. Petrov← M. Marinov

46'

D. Khatri← D. Monteiro de Oliveira

46'

T. Souchard← C. Irigoyen

63'

N. Hadzha← A. Mitkov

67'

B. Dimitrov← N. Zlatev

80'

B. Dimitrov

87'

T. Flick← J. Alves Rodrigues

Bulgaria

Luxembourg

1

Margato

2

Torres

8

▼

Oliveira

10

Elshan

6

Afonso

7

▼

15

4

3

9

11

▼

12

6

4

3

14

10

8

▼

Mitkov

22

Stoyanov

18

Do

15

▼

Marinov

7

▼

Zlatev

Manager: A. Stoykov

46'▲V. Petrov←▼M. Marinov

63'▲N. Hadzha←▼A. Mitkov

67'▲B. Dimitrov←▼N. Zlatev

Bulgaria U19 substitutes

5Petrov20Hadzha9Dimitrov11Rupanov1Borissov16Ivanov21Zhelyazkov17Zhabov2Bozhinov

Manager: M. Mutsch

46'▲D. Khatri←▼D. Monteiro de Oliveira

46'▲T. Souchard←▼C. Irigoyen

87'▲T. Flick←▼J. Alves Rodrigues

Luxembourg U19 substitutes

16Khatri19Souchard17Flick20Lima13Totaro14Araujo12Scheidweiler18Sousa5Klisurica

Match Recap: Bulgaria U19 vs Luxembourg U19

Bulgaria U19 and Luxembourg U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Albena-1 in Albena.

Bulgaria U19 vs Luxembourg U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bulgaria U19 vs Luxembourg U19