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Bulgaria U19 vs Albania U19 — Friendlies 2026

Bulgaria U19
Bulgaria U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albania U19
Albania U19
I. Deykov 71'
6/4/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly Internationalefbet National Football Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bulgaria U1958%
×Draw25%
Albania U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria U19
1.55
Albania U19
0.68

Bulgaria U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bulgaria U19
1.60
Albania U19
0.75

allows per match

Bulgaria U19
0.60
Albania U19
1.50

finishing

Bulgaria U19+0.00on par
Albania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U19 ↓

Albania U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bulgaria U19 or draw
84%
Bulgaria U19 or Albania U19
75%
Draw or Albania U19
42%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U19 wins by 2+
31%
Albania U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bulgaria U19 1+ goals
79%
Bulgaria U19 2+ goals
46%
Bulgaria U19 3+ goals
20%
Albania U19 1+ goals
49%
Albania U19 2+ goals
15%
Albania U19 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Albania U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Albania U19 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U19 attack 1.60 + Albania U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Albania U19 attack 0.75 + Bulgaria U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bulgaria U19 scores more
58%
level
25%
Albania U19 scores more
16%

Bulgaria U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bulgaria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
I. Deykov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Bulgaria U19 1–0 Albania U19

Bulgaria U19 beat Albania U19 1-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2026.

Goals: I. Deykov (71').

The match was played at efbet National Football Base in Sofia.