Bulgaria U17 0–2 Switzerland U17: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U17

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Switzerland U17

10/13/2022

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bulgaria U1734%

×Draw26%

Switzerland U1739%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U17Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.35

Bulgaria U17

1.24

Switzerland U17

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

0.93

creates per match

1.91

0.79

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bulgaria U17

0.93

Switzerland U17

1.91

allows per match

Bulgaria U17

0.79

Switzerland U17

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U17+0.00on par

Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U17 ↓

Switzerland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bulgaria U17 or draw

61%

Bulgaria U17 or Switzerland U17

74%

Draw or Switzerland U17

66%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U17 wins by 2+

15%

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bulgaria U17 1+ goals

71%

Bulgaria U17 2+ goals

35%

Bulgaria U17 3+ goals

13%

Switzerland U17 1+ goals

74%

Switzerland U17 2+ goals

39%

Switzerland U17 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U17 (draw refunded)

47%

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U17 at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Switzerland U17 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U17 attack 0.93 + Switzerland U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Switzerland U17 attack 1.91 + Bulgaria U17 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bulgaria U17 scores more

34%

level

26%

Switzerland U17 scores more

39%

Switzerland U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff