Bulgaria U17 2–0 Luxembourg U17: Result & Stats

Bulgaria U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luxembourg U17

4/16/2025

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 2 - League B - 3MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bulgaria U1752%

×Draw27%

Luxembourg U1722%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulgaria U17Expected goals in this matchLuxembourg U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Bulgaria U17

1.47

Luxembourg U17

0.85

Bulgaria U17 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

0.93

creates per match

0.91

0.79

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bulgaria U17

0.93

Luxembourg U17

0.91

allows per match

Bulgaria U17

0.79

Luxembourg U17

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulgaria U17+0.00on par

Luxembourg U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria U17 ↓

Luxembourg U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bulgaria U17 or draw

78%

Bulgaria U17 or Luxembourg U17

73%

Draw or Luxembourg U17

48%

Winning margin

Bulgaria U17 wins by 2+

26%

Luxembourg U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bulgaria U17 1+ goals

77%

Bulgaria U17 2+ goals

43%

Bulgaria U17 3+ goals

18%

Luxembourg U17 1+ goals

57%

Luxembourg U17 2+ goals

21%

Luxembourg U17 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria U17 (draw refunded)

70%

Luxembourg U17 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria U17 at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Luxembourg U17 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria U17 attack 0.93 + Luxembourg U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Luxembourg U17 attack 0.91 + Bulgaria U17 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bulgaria U17 scores more

52%

level

27%

Luxembourg U17 scores more

22%

Bulgaria U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bulgaria U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff