Bulawayo Chiefs 3–1 Mushowani Stars: Result & Stats

Bulawayo Chiefs

FT

3 – 1

Mushowani Stars

10/30/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 28Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bulawayo Chiefs47%

×Draw29%

Mushowani Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulawayo ChiefsExpected goals in this matchMushowani Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.86

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.30

Mushowani Stars

0.86

Bulawayo Chiefs creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 18 away

1.04

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.04

Mushowani Stars

0.83

allows per match

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.89

Mushowani Stars

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo Chiefs ↓

Mushowani Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bulawayo Chiefs or draw

75%

Bulawayo Chiefs or Mushowani Stars

71%

Draw or Mushowani Stars

53%

Winning margin

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+

22%

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals

73%

Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals

37%

Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals

14%

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

58%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

21%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)

65%

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo Chiefs at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Mushowani Stars away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 1.04 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mushowani Stars attack 0.83 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more

47%

level

29%

Mushowani Stars scores more

25%

Bulawayo Chiefs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bulawayo Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff