Bulawayo Chiefs 1–1 Cranborne Bullets

Bulawayo Chiefs

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cranborne Bullets

5/27/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bulawayo Chiefs45%

×Draw30%

Cranborne Bullets25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulawayo ChiefsExpected goals in this matchCranborne Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.80

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.18

Cranborne Bullets

0.80

Bulawayo Chiefs creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

1.04

creates per match

0.71

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Bulawayo Chiefs

1.04

Cranborne Bullets

0.71

allows per match

Bulawayo Chiefs

0.89

Cranborne Bullets

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulawayo Chiefs+0.00on par

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulawayo Chiefs ↓

Cranborne Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bulawayo Chiefs or draw

75%

Bulawayo Chiefs or Cranborne Bullets

70%

Draw or Cranborne Bullets

55%

Winning margin

Bulawayo Chiefs wins by 2+

19%

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bulawayo Chiefs 1+ goals

69%

Bulawayo Chiefs 2+ goals

33%

Bulawayo Chiefs 3+ goals

12%

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

55%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

19%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bulawayo Chiefs (draw refunded)

64%

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulawayo Chiefs at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulawayo Chiefs attack 1.04 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Bulawayo Chiefs defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bulawayo Chiefs scores more

45%

level

30%

Cranborne Bullets scores more

25%

Bulawayo Chiefs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bulawayo Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff