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BUL vs MYDA — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
4 – 1
MYDA
MYDA
J. Ssemujju 90+4' (pen)
A. Ntege 87'
S. Oketch 81'
M. Esenu 16'
M. Batali 45+1'
2/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Kyabazinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

BUL65%
×Draw20%
MYDA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
2.14
MYDA
0.92

BUL creates 133% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 13 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
MYDA
1.00

allows per match

BUL
0.83
MYDA
2.85

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
MYDA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

MYDA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BUL or draw
85%
BUL or MYDA
80%
Draw or MYDA
35%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
41%
MYDA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
88%
BUL 2+ goals
63%
BUL 3+ goals
36%
MYDA 1+ goals
60%
MYDA 2+ goals
23%
MYDA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
81%
MYDA (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

MYDA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + MYDA defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.14

MYDA attack 1.00 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

BUL scores more
65%
level
20%
MYDA scores more
15%

BUL at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Esenu
40'
P. Kibande← P. Kibande
45+1'
M. Batali
46'
M. Aprem← M. Aprem
53'
R. Mukoghotya
55'
J. Ssemujju← J. Ssemujju
74'
S. Oketch← S. Oketch
79'
M. Martin← M. Martin
81'
S. Oketch
87'
A. Ntege
88'
S. Hussein← S. Hussein
90+3'
I. Osikol
90+4'
J. SsemujjuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 4–1 MYDA

BUL beat MYDA 4-1 in Premier League on February 26, 2021.

Goals: M. Esenu (16'), M. Batali (45+1'), S. Oketch (81'), A. Ntege (87'), J. Ssemujju (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Kyabazinga Stadium in Bugembe.