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BUL vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
2/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BUL70%
×Draw19%
Mbale Heroes11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
2.11
Mbale Heroes
0.68

BUL creates 210% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

BUL or draw
89%
BUL or Mbale Heroes
81%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
30%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
45%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
88%
BUL 2+ goals
62%
BUL 3+ goals
35%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
49%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
15%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
87%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.11

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

BUL scores more
70%
level
19%
Mbale Heroes scores more
11%

BUL at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BUL vs Mbale Heroes

BUL beat Mbale Heroes 3-0 in Premier League on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.