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BUL vs Lugazi — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lugazi
Lugazi
4/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

BUL55%
×Draw29%
Lugazi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.33
Lugazi
0.58

BUL creates 129% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 30 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Lugazi
0.33

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Lugazi
1.23

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Lugazi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Lugazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

BUL or draw
84%
BUL or Lugazi
71%
Draw or Lugazi
45%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
27%
Lugazi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
74%
BUL 2+ goals
38%
BUL 3+ goals
15%
Lugazi 1+ goals
44%
Lugazi 2+ goals
12%
Lugazi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
77%
Lugazi (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Lugazi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Lugazi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lugazi attack 0.33 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BUL scores more
55%
level
29%
Lugazi scores more
16%

BUL at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 4–0 Lugazi

BUL beat Lugazi 4-0 in Premier League on April 29, 2025.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.