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BUL vs Entebbe UPPC — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Entebbe UPPC
Entebbe UPPC
11/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BUL40%
×Draw30%
Entebbe UPPC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.11
Entebbe UPPC
0.92

BUL creates 21% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Entebbe UPPC
1.00

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Entebbe UPPC
0.80

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Entebbe UPPC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BUL or draw
70%
BUL or Entebbe UPPC
70%
Draw or Entebbe UPPC
60%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
16%
Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
67%
BUL 2+ goals
30%
BUL 3+ goals
10%
Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals
60%
Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals
23%
Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
57%
Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BUL scores more
40%
level
30%
Entebbe UPPC scores more
30%

BUL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 0–2 Entebbe UPPC

Entebbe UPPC beat BUL 2-0 in Premier League on November 27, 2025.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre.