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BUL vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
2/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

BUL51%
×Draw27%
Bright Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.42
Bright Stars
0.84

BUL creates 69% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 83 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BUL or draw
78%
BUL or Bright Stars
73%
Draw or Bright Stars
49%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
25%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
76%
BUL 2+ goals
41%
BUL 3+ goals
17%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
57%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
21%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
69%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

BUL scores more
51%
level
27%
Bright Stars scores more
22%

BUL at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BUL vs Bright Stars

BUL beat Bright Stars 2-1 in Premier League on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.