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Bukovyna vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Bukovyna
Bukovyna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
11/24/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 18Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bukovyna47%
×Draw28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukovyna
1.32
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.88

Bukovyna creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bukovyna
1.49
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.84

allows per match

Bukovyna
0.92
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.16

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par
Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw
75%
Bukovyna or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
72%
Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi
53%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+
22%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals
73%
Bukovyna 2+ goals
38%
Bukovyna 3+ goals
15%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals
59%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals
22%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)
65%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.49 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + Bukovyna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bukovyna scores more
47%
level
28%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more
25%

Bukovyna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bukovyna vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Podillya Khmelnytskyi beat Bukovyna 2-0 in Persha Liga on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bukovyna in Chernivtsi.