Bukovyna 3–3 Nyva Buzova: Result & Stats

Bukovyna

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Nyva Buzova

10/28/2023

Persha Liga · Round 14Stadion Bukovyna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bukovyna41%

×Draw28%

Nyva Buzova31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BukovynaExpected goals in this matchNyva Buzova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Bukovyna

1.25

Nyva Buzova

1.06

Bukovyna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

1.49

creates per match

1.21

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bukovyna

1.49

Nyva Buzova

1.21

allows per match

Bukovyna

0.92

Nyva Buzova

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Nyva Buzova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukovyna ↓

Nyva Buzova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bukovyna or draw

69%

Bukovyna or Nyva Buzova

72%

Draw or Nyva Buzova

59%

Winning margin

Bukovyna wins by 2+

18%

Nyva Buzova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bukovyna 1+ goals

71%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

36%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

13%

Nyva Buzova 1+ goals

65%

Nyva Buzova 2+ goals

29%

Nyva Buzova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

56%

Nyva Buzova (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukovyna at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 51 matches

Nyva Buzova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukovyna attack 1.49 + Nyva Buzova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nyva Buzova attack 1.21 + Bukovyna defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bukovyna scores more

41%

level

28%

Nyva Buzova scores more

31%

Bukovyna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bukovyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff