Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bukavu Dawa vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vita Club
Vita Club
11/16/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa19%
×Draw30%
Vita Club52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.64
Vita Club
1.27

Vita Club creates 98% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
48%
Bukavu Dawa or Vita Club
70%
Draw or Vita Club
81%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
5%
Vita Club wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
47%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
14%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
3%
Vita Club 1+ goals
72%
Vita Club 2+ goals
36%
Vita Club 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
27%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
19%
level
30%
Vita Club scores more
52%

Vita Club at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bukavu Dawa 0 – 2 Vita Club

Vita Club beat Bukavu Dawa 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 16, 2025.