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Bukavu Dawa vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 3
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
9/12/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa18%
×Draw28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.65
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.35

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 108% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 98 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
46%
Bukavu Dawa or Saint Eloi Lupopo
72%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
82%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
5%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
48%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
14%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
3%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
74%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
39%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
25%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
18%
level
28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
54%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bukavu Dawa vs Saint Eloi Lupopo

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Bukavu Dawa 3-0 in Ligue 1 on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Concorde in Bukavu.