Bukavu Dawa 1–1 FC Mk de Kinshasa: Result & Stats

Bukavu Dawa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Mk de Kinshasa

3/18/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bukavu Dawa29%

×Draw35%

FC Mk de Kinshasa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bukavu DawaExpected goals in this matchFC Mk de Kinshasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

0.88

Bukavu Dawa

0.76

FC Mk de Kinshasa

0.88

FC Mk de Kinshasa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

0.52

creates per match

0.55

1.21

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa

0.52

FC Mk de Kinshasa

0.55

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa

1.21

FC Mk de Kinshasa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

FC Mk de Kinshasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

FC Mk de Kinshasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw

64%

Bukavu Dawa or FC Mk de Kinshasa

65%

Draw or FC Mk de Kinshasa

71%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+

9%

FC Mk de Kinshasa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals

53%

Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals

18%

Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals

4%

FC Mk de Kinshasa 1+ goals

59%

FC Mk de Kinshasa 2+ goals

22%

FC Mk de Kinshasa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)

45%

FC Mk de Kinshasa (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

FC Mk de Kinshasa away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + FC Mk de Kinshasa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.76

FC Mk de Kinshasa attack 0.55 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more

29%

level

35%

FC Mk de Kinshasa scores more

36%

FC Mk de Kinshasa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Mk de Kinshasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff